Taiwan is set to look for UN membership and is planning to hold 2 referenda on the March 22 presidental election. China I feel, will simply not allow Taiwan to assert independence. These steps will be straw that will trigger (finally) a Chinese response as it takes steps to reunify the island. Whether it’s by initial invasion, is I think unlikely – I think a naval blockade is the most likely answer, and it’s not se east to see WHEN exactly that will happen. March 22 would certainly a significant day however.
If/when it does happen, it is likely that the air attack by the Zionists occupying Palestine upon Iran soon folowed by US participation. Purely an air based attack – possibly involving mini-nukes.
Reading today this (next paragraph) from Irans PressTV as well as China’s acceptance for a third round of sanctions makes me think Taiwan is the price. Remember Iran is only selling it’s gas to China for foreign currency – Iran itself says it needs energy to power modernisation (hence the nuclear programme). China may risk harmig its gas / oil stakes in Iran if Iran needs to utilize its own hydrocarbon resources if forced to abandon its nuclear ambitions. So what we may wonder is China’s price.
PRESSTV Sun, 09 Mar 2008 17:23:44 GMT
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=46690§ionid=351020104
Senior Kuwaiti strategist Sami al-Faraj says an Israeli military strike on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities is not a bad idea.
In a Sunday interview with the daily Al-Siyassah, the former government adviser said Iran’s nuclear program has become a major concern for all Persian Gulf littoral states and therefore an Israeli attack may be an appropriate solution.
The question is what would it do if it were a nuclear nation? We have to call a spade a spade and say that burying the military nuclear Iranian project is in the interest of PGCC states, said al-Faraj, who heads the independent Kuwait Center for Strategy Studies.
He added that it would be ‘less embarrassing’ if Israel cripples Iran’s nuclear program rather than the US.
Honestly speaking, they would be achieving something of great strategic value for the PGCC by stopping Iran’s tendency for hegemony over the area, he said.
Kuwait hosts several US military facilities and has developed into a key western ally in the Persian Gulf region.
Breaking News » World » Middle East » Iran
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UPDATE: (hopefully NOT indicicative of what I’m saying)
The resignation of the commander of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan does not signal a policy change on Iran, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates says.
1) Admiral William Fallon quits over Iran policy
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article3534102.ece
2) Fallon Resigns As Mideast Military Chief
– Admiral William Fallon – Commander of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan who publically took a astand against an invasion of Iran resigns.
(http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g4TCb3GE9GQnVpZaWHA-cPBpbwmwD8VBGGC00)
Also:
US report softens stance on China
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7291055.stm
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