Posts Tagged 'Peak Oil'

Fresh views on Peak Oil?

Fresh views on Peak Oil?

Hopefully I’ll provide one or two new things to think about in this short post about Peak oil.

Personally, I don’t buy the biotic theory of oil, i.e. that it is (continually) being made by bacteria in the ground. Oil is toxic to life forms – is it not? Because of the nature of oil, it is reasonable to think that what makes it toxic to large creatures makes it toxic to smaller creatures too. And if I am wrong, you’d think an extract and analysis of a sample of oil would reveal the presence of this bacteria and as far as I know, there aint no bacteria there. If there was you just know what people would be trying to make that bacteria do now! Also, I think radiocarbon dating suggests much of the worlds oil came from a couple of periods millions of years ago abou 150 million years ago and about 60 million years ago), i.e. not last November.

Having said that, when I began to think about the ‘official’ explanation of how oil came about, I became shocked at what had come to believe on the matter. Now I am forced to keep that explanation at arms length! Of course, if you, likeI did, just accept what you are told on the matter, the oddities of oil simply wouldn’t have occurred to you. So lets explor that: Just how a few dead fish could sink the bottom of the ocean (without being eaten by other fish or rotting in the process, having its flesh disperse in the sea) and then accumulate in such quantity over such huge periods of time without being washed away, or have it’s fats/oils from rising to the top of the sea as its body decayed or have their abundance kept in check by predation forces – remember the foxes and rabbits simulation?) and then that the dead fish found it’s way into the middle of an outer casing of impermeable/impervious rock followed by oxygen and nitrogen stripping reactions and to then become subject to huge pressures and temperatures in the thin crust to form oil, *breathe*,  simply defies any leniency I can give such a set of circumstances.

So I can’t settle on its origin, but I’m pretty sure it’s quantity/availability is finite and that’s where the problem starts.

I know there’s a flood of ‘peak oil-ers’ and I’ve watched many of the documentaries relating to peak oil. Many  people who appear on them are ‘suddeners’ i.e. peak oil gets talked about as though the ‘end’ of oil will happen in a few months having rapid and serious consequences which will leave people stranded. When I first started being exposed to peak oil discussion, I kind of bought into that, but now I don’t. I’ve changed into a ‘slower’ and it’s a hardening opinion within my, catalysed by a documentary I saw recently called The end of Suburbia, which actually made me impatient and irritated at some of the stuff being said. I believed I spotted many holes/flaws in that documentary and ‘suddener’ thinking.

Peak oil is often talked about as demand outstripping supply. And I’m sure I’ve seen charts showing demand going up and up and up while supply goes down and down and down. The way I see it, is that if someone/something – say a business – can’t get their demand fulfilled, then it will go bust. Meaning it will be removed from the demand equation. So I don’t think the up up up depiction is particularly valid.

As demand increases, the price will increase. This will, over time, simply mean that the poor won’t be able to afford (much of) it. That will again take demand out of the system. Additionally as production of crude diminishes, recycling, conservation and preservation will do a bit to offset demand too. Wind, geothermal, tide, solar and wind will necessarily come online while McDonalds (a corporation known to fund Zionism) for example, will simply stop dishing out those rubbishy plastic toys with it’s happy meals. Poorer people in the developed and developing nations who can’t afford £5 a litre for petrol, will simply be forced to car pool or use public transport or move house to be located very close to their place of work. Bicycles will become more popular and likely greater provision will be made for that. The energy intense / resource intense consumers will have to make adjustments too, like not buying as many cars or TV sets as before. They will take cloth shopping bags with them and glass bottles to refill. They will be forced to sort out their rubbish (as already happens in the UK and Germany) into efficient piles of glass, metal, specific plastics etc. Companies too will shift manufacture towards smarter more efficient and innovative designs. They will no longer be able to get away with designing their products to fail after a certain period of time as they currently do. GM based food will skyrocket. The people behind GM food simply don’t give a crap about any potential poisoning. They just want to make money and the people eating GM will want it because they believe it will be ‘cheaper’ (not thinking of the health issues and costs of course).

Tragically, the writing’s on the wall that Nuclear energy (p.s. nuke heads also don’t really give a crap about nuclear pollution/waste either) will be used to generate hydrogen gas , freeing oil/hydrocarbons from sources of combustion to increasingly exclusive use as chemical feedstock’s (e.g. fertilisers) and tyres, road stuffs, general and specialist polymers etc etc. Indeed, I predict with little hesitation that a largely recyclable solvent and energy efficient system/s (e.g. ionic liquids) will become useable in the near future and recycle much of the polymers already in use. I’d expect a gradual revitalisation of the rubber forestry industry.  I also expect ordinary people to slowly begin to growing their own foods in gardens, nearby public land or in pots, window boxes etc. More people will stick a set of solar panels on their roof too (I used to think solar panels were an energy sink, but doubt that now). I feel the population will eventually start to decline simply due to real global pollution; Note: that’s nuclear waste pollution and chemical pollution, not this CO2 hoax pollution thing. Actually, there are a variety of ways that could come about and many of them are not very savoury – just ask prince Philip.

As the oil begins to run out, life will change, I think there’s no dispute about that. Those 600 million out of the approx 6,800 million that are well off should be OK. It’ll be the poor who suffer and/or have to make the greatest adjustment.

And of course, as the oil begins to run out, more and more of it will begin to earmarked for military use, to attempt to assert control over the dwindling supplies. When peak oil really does begin to bite (LONG into the future if what I’ve said above makes sense) the elite will probably populate to luxurious locations in minimally polluted tropical lands with tankers offshore filled with supplies of fuel guarded by a private army. Tankers with cables leading to shore, or simply tap into previously stored capped reserves or those deliberately pumped into the ground. You can bet your life that the elite will be virtually unaffected by the end of oil, and while the rest of us are living lives unfamiliar to us today, their life will be the life of riley. They will also seek to control biofuel resources throughout the world.

In conclusion: Post peak oil is expected to be a slow, long drawn out affair. If you’re wealthy, you’ll not get hit all that bad. If you’re poor, life may become harder – all those above you (in monetary terms, i.e. socially and politically) will simply stand on you to keep their heads above water. Life will change, but not coallspe. Suburbia will become gardens of agriculture. The mass multinational ‘DEVELOPED WORLD’ will face little if any starvation (but there WILL be starvation in the 3rd World – absolutely). There will not be ‘shoot-out’s over a tin of beans’ type scenarios either. These instant ‘just add water’ peak oil disaster scenarios are simply unsustainable in my view.

Doomsday – Good and Bad

I have a ‘passion’ for thinking about the end times.

– you may have noticed

Some might say it’s ghoulish, but that might imply I’m looking forward to it and want it to happen. It’s kind of ‘exciting’ to think about such things, probably or partly because I’ve been programmed as such by the ‘moviefication’ or ‘tellyfication’ of disasters, which always portrays disasters as opportunities for triumph, awash with heroism {of the white western variety of course}. The more sensible bit of me puts this breach of reality into check and realises that: even if I wasn’t unwittingly influenced by Hollywood depiction of the end times, the real Armageddon will be unimaginably worse.

When I was young, I grew up in the cold war. Nuclear Armageddon was never far away (probably it was never allowed to be far away) and Nuclear things fascinated me so much  that I wanted to be a ‘nuclear chemist’, even though I had probably just invented a brand new profession and didn’t actually know what a nuclear chemist would actually do! I can see very clearly that my nuclear ‘desires’ were heavily influenced by propaganda and video games, some of which lead me to believe that as a nuclear chemist in a post nuked world, I could make things not so bad – errrm somehow, that there was something one could actually do to fight and win – like bollocks you could.

MY ‘nuclear youth’ seems to have provided an early runner of Theological Armageddon but now I have more sense. I’m no psycho.

OK. lets get down to business.

I was reading a book on the Dajjal, the anti-Christ and something that had been nagging me in the background suddenly made became clear. The descriptions of the end times I had read seemed a quite unusual with regards to the modern world we live in today. They talk of people using swords, shooting arrows, horsemen, armies gathering and things unfolding as though nobody had knowledge of prophesied acts gleaned from the tens of thousands of books, oral stories, and e-media.

Why don’t nuclear weapons seem to be used? Why are conventional armies like in the time of old mentioned?

The atheists will claim because its nonsense and that the prophets of God didn’t really get divine knowledge as to these events and so naturally portrayed the end days in a very low technology society that the prophets saw in their day.

Some religious men will say it’s religious symbolism, although I think the prophets would know what a sword is and describe it correctly given that it is used as weapon, If the ‘sword’ did something other than what a normal sword does, or the swod was 100ft long, then one would have an arguement for saying the word sword was some kind of symbolism and be best word they could pick to describe something that they had never seen before.

But a possible more ‘conventional’ idea (and only Allah(SWT) knows) as to what will happen dawned upon me as to all this.

And in addition to things like swords being hung up, arrows being fired, conventional armies of old being assembled, there is no mention of the US, of South America, Of China, of Australia of most of Africa. There is no mention of aircraft, battleships. There is no mention of computers, machine guns, tanks, napalm and so forth. The descriptions are very much Middle East and Europe centered.

What explanation could account for this?

It hit me that the end-times are likely to happen in a world where there is virtually NO energy sources left. There is a description of Dajjal riding a donkey, which I would accept is symbolism for an aeroplane, but as far as I can tell, air power is all but gone from the end times and is certainly not significant at all.

A near total lack of energy would mean difficulty in travel – Hence no mention of the US, China, Australia, Russia even. Populations would be pretty much localised. The age of sail via wind power, would cause long journey times once more hence ‘isiolating’ far off lands making them very less significant in ME politics. Weapon wise, carrying a machine gun (whose whole ‘aura’ is energy expensive – including bullets!) or even muskets and rifles seem also to have felt the energy pinch. Swords however can be crafted in traditional fashion with renewable fuels such as wood.

No Nukes are mentioned so it appears that even they have fallen victim to a possible global extinction of energy. Even Dajjal’s donkey (plane) – assuming the symbolism of a donkey for a plane is correct – might be such a luxury in such a world and so its use is essentially zero – certainly there is little description of bombs/missiles (one would exptect the term flaming arrows) coming from the donkey, so it may just be a transport plane. Although the dajjal can appear to perform miracles so maybe he will have a real donkey of the unuaul description describes.

So it seems to me that in a scientifically conventional predictive way, there is a reasonalbe arguement for saying the actual physical appearace of the dajjal is quite a long way off. Oil, coal and nuclear have to be virtually extinct, or certainly unable to power any serious military hardware like a coal steam train on rails (easily sabotaged) carring cannons etc.

If all this is correct, this is ‘good’ from the point of view the end times are far, far away. But it’s bad in the sense that right now it feels like the conditions for Armageddon are already here and that at this day the world is already a terrible place to live, so I shudder in thinking how much worse it can get over the predicted ‘far away’ time for the real end of the world.

Oil – Peak oil

If oil (hydrocarbons),
supposedly formed from the bodies of sea creatures,
( in two periods, 90 and 150 million years ago)
then what happened to all the nitrogen?

Btw: Abiotic oil is the NeoDarwinism of the oil sector – without any evidence whatsoever. I don’t subscribe to that faith.

Some advocate using some of the last remaining cheap oil to construct mega projects to offset the change that will be unavoidable when the oil starts to run out. The principle of equilibrium warns otherwise. Mega projects are a major perturbance of the wider, more dominant global ecosystem. The equilibrium will be disturbed. These mega projects will be forced by various ways and means – primarily by the forces of nature – to get back to the natural ecosystem. The energy demand to resist the megaproject’s slide back to normality will ultimately prove fruitless. Such megaprojects involve things like growing cucumbers in India (already happening), and growing strawberries in the Egyptian Desert. etc etc

My proposal pretty much heads off in the opposite direction. I think much of the remaining cheap oil to assist the emergence of many microprojects which are only slightly removed or nudged from the overriding global natural system. We must learn to live in the natural world. Actually there are still significant projects I think would be good, such as a logistic channels roads/rail but designed as much as possible to environmentally ergonomic.

As for Dams, I believe they are the type of megaprojects which stand the best chance of ultimately being of more benefit than drainage, but they should. again, try to accommodate the natural world as much as possible – e.g. using natural lakes. I don’t know a great deal about the Three Gorges Dam project in China but the effort put into achieving it seems to me that it is quite for removed (as dams go) from the previous natural status quo, therefore a project very likely to experience major buffeting by the Old Natural Order.  One project which may be classified as a mega project, is the re-designation of many unnatural constructions in the great Urban sprawls e.g. the US east Coast, Tokyo, London to Birmingham. Say for example a block of flats a 20 story building. Have say every second floor designated for agriculture. [Note this is a better solution than dismantling the cities once the oil based lifestyle screws are turned too tightly]. Of course studies need to be done NOW as to how to understand and make those micro-agrarian systems work successfully].

Life simplification in terms of raw materials is also necessary. Use more bamboo – a superb construction material. Renewable too; Pleases the Panda worshippers also! Knowledge availability, sustainability and dissemination is vital. How that is to happen is not easy to envisage. Electronic communication is excellent but expensive in energy consumption. Could clockwork / solar do the job? Speaking of solar, is there a low energy way of harvesting solar power? In this age of free flowing oil, silicon production, like almost everything else, has happily guzzles on energy. Why develop highly efficient methods of producing solar cells when oil will do it for it so much more cheaply, but solar cells offer great potential for a small level of electronic and creature comforting goods/products/utilities.

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